Potential Tropical Storm Developing in the Gulf of Mexico
City of Concern: Corpus Christi
As residents of Corpus Christi keep an eye on the bay, a potential tropical storm is forming in the Gulf of Mexico, with forecasters predicting it could reach a low-end Category 1 hurricane status by Wednesday. Following weeks of quiet weather, the National Hurricane Center has reported a significant chance for tropical storm development, now set at 90% within the next 48 hours. This information was last updated in a briefing on Sunday evening.
Tropical Storm Watch Issued
A tropical storm watch is currently in effect for the southern Texas region, specifically from Port Mansfield down to the Rio Grande River. This watch indicates that tropical storm winds could begin affecting the area as early as Tuesday evening. The Mexican coastline southward to Barra del Tordo is also under this watch, making residents in these areas increasingly alert to the impending weather changes.
Current Location of the System
As of Sunday night, the center of this new system was approximately 320 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande and about 550 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana. The system features sustained winds estimated at around 50 mph and is currently moving at a sluggish pace of just 5 mph in a north-northwest direction.
Anticipated Development
Forecasters expect this system to evolve into a tropical storm by Monday, and tropical storm conditions are likely to hit parts of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the southern tip of Texas. If it develops as expected, this storm would become the sixth named storm of the 2024 hurricane season and would be referred to as Francine.
Flooding Concerns Rise
With the storm’s anticipated trajectory, hurricane, storm surge, and tropical storm watches are expected along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts starting Monday. In a statement, meteorologist Donald Jones emphasized the potential for heavy rainfall, stating that the storm could bring between 4 to 8 inches of rain, with some areas possibly receiving up to 12 inches along the Texas and Louisiana coasts through Thursday. This creates a concerning risk for flash floods, especially in southwestern Louisiana.
Forecast Track and Timing
The system is forecast to pick up speed and begin moving more quickly to the northeast by late Tuesday as it interacts with a cold front coming ashore. The current predictions suggest the storm will be just offshore along the Texas coast and may make landfall either on the upper Texas coast or southwestern Louisiana on Wednesday.
Keeping a Close Eye
Residents are urged to remain vigilant as the storm approaches. Reports indicate that water temperatures in the Gulf are currently warmer than normal, which can help in the development of hurricanes. While strengthening is expected once the system forms a clear center, the hurricane center also noted that increasing wind shear and slightly drier air could limit further intensification.
Conclusion
As the situation continues to develop, residents of southwestern Louisiana and southeast Texas should prepare for possible impacts from this tropical system. The primary concern at this time remains flooding, particularly in areas south of Interstate 10. With the track of the storm shifting slightly eastward, the upcoming days will be critical for monitoring any changes and ensuring the safety of local communities.
